Brilliant or lost? Where will China's 3G network card go?

Leading Word: In February 2011, Beijing Telecom stopped subsidizing 3G network cards. Consumers will no longer be able to get 3G internet cards for free, but they will have to pay for 3G internet cards themselves. Domestic operators began to formally change the 3G network card development strategy, from the initial "broad" expansion of the market to tighten, and to guide users from wireless broadband to mobile phones, the overall 3G network card filled with a layer of dense fog. Will the 3G card be bright or dark tomorrow?

The hot 3G network card in the past is the darling of operators and the best in the 3G market. Operators have vigorously promoted and focused on subsidies in order to capture the 3G market in a two-pronged manner. However, the problem of bandwidth occupied by 3G network cards has become increasingly serious. Although operators have unanimously expressed that they have little influence on themselves, they have taken various measures to ease the pressure on the network caused by 3G network cards.

The outlook is promising - 3G is rapidly growing in the global market. In the “3G Innovation and Application Forum” in December 2010, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the news that the global 3G users have already accounted for 15.6% of the total mobile users in the world. Although the proportion is not very large, its The growth rate is high. Among the newly added users, about 34% of the users are 3G users. One user per 3 users in the world is a 3G user.

In 2009, global mobile revenue accounted for 23.3% of total revenue, and it is expected to maintain double-digit growth rate in the next few years. By 2013, there will be a market of US$330 billion, and the proportion of revenue in mobile services will be close to 33%, so the entire market will be broad. Space is a huge driving force for the development of the 3G network card market.

Ambitious - Operators to promote, focus on subsidies In the case of a better overall market situation, the demand for 3G network cards has grown rapidly. In 2009 alone, shipments exceeded 20 million units. From the perspective of China, the three major telecommunications operators attach great importance to the 3G network card market. In the initial period of expanding the 3G network card market, operators provide free internet cards for customers, which is a relative subsidy of four to five hundred yuan per user. With such a large amount of subsidies, operators are ambitious about the 3G network card market.

Internal and external problems - 3G network card caused the network bandwidth crisis as an important part of 3G business, 3G network card in the early stage for operators to develop 3G "pioneer", and now, 3G network card caused by the Internet broadband crisis has attracted attention. Carriers' network traffic is limited by bandwidth. A large number of users simultaneously use 3G network cards to cause serious network bandwidth occupation. At the same time, although the 3G network card occupies most of the network's capacity, the revenue it brings to the operator is not proportional to the occupied bandwidth resources.

Wanted to cover up - operators responded that "the storm is not strong"

In the face of the network bandwidth crisis caused by 3G network cards, operators have stated that they have little influence on themselves. China Unicom related departments said: "3G broadband Internet access will consume a lot of traffic, resulting in the entire 3G network bandwidth resources are occupied by 3G wireless network card users, but this part of the income is not proportional to the occupied bandwidth resources, this situation is indeed It is easy to appear. However, China Unicom has not yet emerged from this situation.” Another giant China Telecom said, “China Telecom will not only stop the development of the Internet card, but will also take measures to guide users to use the Internet card more.” Operators' response to the crisis and turmoil of the 3G network card was not as intense as the outside world had imagined.

In the face of the current situation of "occupied bandwidth" and "less income" caused by 3G network cards, how should operators respond? Is it still offensive or retreating? Each has come up with "limited flow", "limited time" program to reduce the 3G network card to the network bandwidth pressure.

Is it still offensive or retreating? —— Operators to change the 3G network card market development strategy Since February 2011, China Telecom Group, one of the key operators in the 3G network card market in China, has asked local companies to stop giving away 3G network cards and stop developing unlimited traffic packages. Instead, it should be limited to a limited duration and limit traffic. No matter if it is time or the traffic exceeds the upper limit, additional billing is required.

Specifically, Beijing Telecom's 3G Internet access plan, although the price has not changed, but the 3G network card has changed from a gift to a user out of pocket. The Tianyi 3G network card promotion has officially ended on February 1, 2011. During the period from February 1 to March 31, consumers will be required to pay a separate card fee to purchase the Tianyi 3G network card. As of March 31, a new tariff policy will be implemented, but it has not yet received notification. In Shanghai, there is only a restricted-traffic flow that has just been launched on February 1 and domestic roaming packages. The 3G network card concessions are still kept. The 3G network card subsidy in other packages has been cancelled.

The shrinking strategy of operators in the 3G network card market can ease the pressure of 3G network cards on the network. On the other hand, it can also transfer customers from simple broadband access services to rich applications such as mobile phones and tablet computers. Will carriers continue to attack or retreat in the 3G network card market? Many consumers have such doubts, because the shrinking market strategy is not a positive message to consumers, and consumers therefore question whether operators intend to significantly reduce or even cancel the sale of 3G network cards.

Is it rainy or dead? —— “Accounting fee” fully launched In order to solve the obvious status quo of bandwidth occupied by 3G network cards, operators have launched a “per-flow meter” package, and the charging method based on “pay-by-time billing” was changed to Limited-time, limited-flow "double-limit" mode, and "per-flow fee" dominate. Although operators have expressed that the situation of occupied bandwidth of 3G network cards has little influence on themselves, the change in their billing methods can not help but cause confusion. What operators are trying to prevent 3G network cards from occupying too much bandwidth affects the network Lift? Or is it already dead?

Ten ambush - 3G network card faced with mobile phones, tablet computers, etc. After pinching off Beijing Telecom, after subsidizing 3G network cards, it subsidized the mobile phones to a greater extent, in order to stimulate the growth of 3G mobile terminal users. At the beginning of the development of the 3G market, the terminal has always been one of the bottlenecks that plagued the industry chain. The lack of 3G mobile phones has given the 3G network card an absolute competitive advantage. With the continuous enrichment of terminals, operators and consumers have more choices.

Although the 3G version of the Apple iPad has not yet received a network license and cannot be listed, consumer expectations are very high. The 3G version of the Apple iPad will undoubtedly continue the iPhone's hot sales. From this point of view, the tablet PC has joined the 3G terminal. After the competition in the market will become a strong opponent of 3G network card. The attack of 3G terminal products such as mobile phones and tablet PCs will bring a lot of impact to the 3G network card market.

Difficulties ahead - The development of 3G network cards is constrained by the "generous generosity" of base station construction operators. The 3G network card business has gradually disappeared. The three major operators have successively adjusted their tariff policies for 3G network card services and tightened card traffic, making the replacement of ADSL by 3G network cards disappear. At the same time, the problem of bandwidth occupied by 3G network cards has become increasingly serious. In order for 3G services to develop more rapidly and even replace 2G, the expansion of bandwidth is very important. According to the current 3G network bearer, if the number of users surges, 3G functions cannot be used. Only operators continue to invest in expanding 3G bandwidth, providing consumers with better services, and ultimately attracting consumers to use 3G networks. The most direct way of bandwidth is the construction of base stations, and the cost of building 3G base stations is not small, and operators cannot continue large-scale investment. Therefore, the development of 3G network cards is constrained by the construction of base stations.

summary:

Turning Towards a Glorious or Declining Day?

Faced with new policies and immature markets, will the 3G network card face highs or lows? The market started from the early good news and the growth trend gradually returned to normal track. The 3G network card is no longer the only choice for consumers in the 3G market. More 3G mobile phones, tablet PCs and other terminal equipment have participated in the 3G battlefield. Although in the short term it will bring some impact to the 3G network card market, in the long run, this turning point may be the beginning of a glorious 3G card market. It has undergone a long process of standardizing market competition, mature technologies and more. More base stations will give consumers a better 3G experience. At the same time, we should also be able to see that in the face of the competition of 3G terminals such as mobile phones and tablet PCs, the 3G network card is slightly passive, so we cannot rule out the possibility of the market going down. At the beginning of 2011, the 3G card market was full of variables. ZDC believes that the 3G network card market will face an important turning point in 2011, its shipments and attention will be greatly affected, after experiencing the operator's tightening strategy, the market will tend to a steady, small growth.