Taiwan's two major industries of panel and semiconductor will soon be surpassed by the mainland

Although the mainland is the second largest economy in the world and has advantages in such fields as aerospace, equipment manufacturing, new energy, and new materials, the development of semiconductors, optoelectronics, and other industries lags behind, and it lags behind Taiwan on the other side.

Over the years, these two major industries have become a major shortcoming in the development of the mainland's economy. Chips and large-size panels mainly rely on imports from Taiwan and South Korea. In recent years, the mainland has actively supported and developed the semiconductor and optoelectronic industries. After years of efforts, the two major industries in the Mainland have made great progress and development. According to the current development trend, the two major industries' production value and the global market occupancy of some products will gradually catch up. And beyond Taiwan.

One of the core of the optoelectronics industry is the panel industry. Globally, panel production is mainly concentrated in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the mainland. The key upstream technologies are in the hands of multinational companies such as the United States and Japan. In particular, large-size panel production is mainly controlled by Taiwan and South Korea, while the mainland is relatively backward. , Long-term in the size of the main panel production. In particular, the mainland is the main producer of LCD TVs, and TV LCD panels (panels) rely mainly on Taiwan and South Korean manufacturers. Among them, in 2013, Taiwan and South Korea's optoelectronic companies jointly manipulated the market price of the panel, and were punished by investigations by the National Development and Reform Commission.

Faced with the lagging development of the panel industry and the long-term constraint on people, the mainland has on the one hand encouraged foreign investment and cooperation and on the other hand increased support for local companies. After years of efforts, a number of well-known panel manufacturers have emerged in the mainland. Among them, BOE led by the Beijing Municipal Government has become a banner for the development of the mainland's panel industry, and has become a highly competitive and well-known large enterprise in the global industry.

From 2003 to 2016, BOE has invested more than 300 billion yuan in total and established 11 panel production lines in many places. From January to September 2017, operating income reached 69.4 billion yuan, an annual increase of 51.4%. The market share of BOE's global shipment of large-size LCD panels increased from 8.5% in 2014 to 12.1% in 2016 and is expected to reach 20.8% in 2017. In light of this development trend, BOE is expected to replace South Korea's LG Display (21% in 2017) as the world's largest LCD panel company in 2018. In particular, in the first half of 2017, BOE's LCD monitors, tablet PC monitors, and notebook PC monitors all had the market share in the world.

According to WitsView research data, in 2018, only the new panel plant in the mainland will be put into production. The BOE 10.5 generation panel plant will be officially put into production. Other manufacturers are only slightly expanding production, and the market share of TV panel shipments from the mainland panel maker is expected to reach approximately 38.64%, which surpassed Korea's 32.28% and 25.54% of Taiwan's panel tigers (AUO and Innolux), ranked 1st in the world.

In the development of OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode Display) products, South Koreaâ€™s Samsung has stood out and monopolized the supply market for TVs and mobile phone OLED flat panels. Samsung OLEDâ€™s market share reached 98.3%, which controls Appleâ€™s and Huawei's famous mobile phone markets. This type of flat supply.

In September 2017, BOE announced that the sixth-generation flexible AMOLED production line in Chengdu has progressed smoothly. It has been officially put into production and will supply Huawei and other mobile phone manufacturers, indicating that BOE will break Samsungâ€™s monopoly on the OLED market. It can be said that at present, China's optoelectronics industry, especially in the panel industry, has been in line with Taiwan. The market share of single companies has surpassed that of Taiwan. With flexible AMOLEDs already leading Taiwan, it is also possible to fully surpass Taiwan.

At present, Taiwanâ€™s most competitive and largest high-tech industry is the semiconductor industry. It not only leads the mainland in terms of foundry manufacturing, but also has its output value on the mainland. However, after years of hard work, it is expected that the output value of mainland semiconductors will surpass Taiwan in two years (2020).

Taiwan's semiconductor industry started early, developed rapidly, and has been leading the mainland. According to the Taiwan Industrial Research Center's IBE report, the growth rate of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan has been slowing down. In 2016, the total semiconductor output value was NT$2,499.3 billion (approximately US$81.6 billion), an increase of 8.2% year-on-year, and the 2017 production value was 2. .46 trillion Taiwan dollars (the same below), an annual increase of only 0.5%.

Among them, the largest output value of IC manufacturing (Taiwan's most representative companies, UMC, etc.), the output value in 2016 was 133.2 billion yuan, accounting for 54.4%, the output value in 2017 was 13700 yuan, an annual growth of 2.7% The output value of IC design industry (representing the company as MediaTek) was 653.1 billion yuan in 2016, accounting for 26.7%, and the production value in 2017 was 617.1 billion yuan, 5.5% less year-on-year; IC packaging (representing companies Riyueguang, Xipin) 2016 The output value was 323.8 billion yuan, accounting for 13.2%; the output value in 2017 was 333 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%; the output value of the IC testing industry (Yueyueguang, etc.) in 2016 was 140 billion yuan, accounting for 5.7% in 2017. The output value was 144 billion yuan, an annual increase of 2.9%.

Obviously, IC manufacturing foundry is the largest and most advantageous semiconductor industry in Taiwan, and its output value accounts for half of the country.

According to the ICInsights report, in 2016, TSMCâ€™s operating income reached US$29.49 billion, and its global market share reached 59%. The second-placed Groove's operating income was only US$5.55 billion, and its market share was only 11%. The third place is UMC of Taiwan, with an operating income of US$4.58 billion and a market share of 9%. In other words, Taiwanâ€™s two companiesâ€™ wafer manufacturing products have a global market share of nearly 70%.

However, with the strong support of the Chinese government in recent years, the development of the wafer manufacturing industry led by SMIC is very fast.

In February 2015, the major fund spent RMB 3.099 billion to invest in SMIC and became the second largest shareholder of SMIC.

In 2015, SMIC announced mass production of 28nm Snapdragon 410 processors. On June 22nd, 2016, SMIC announced that Beijing Factory successfully mass-produced the 28nm Qualcomm Snapdragon 425 series products, which was achieved again after the successful production of the Qualcomm Snapdragon 410 processor at the SMIC Shanghai plant. Major progress.

On October 16, 2017, SMIC officially announced that Dr. Meng Mengsong, senior research and development division of Frontier Semiconductor, has joined SMIC as the co-CEO and executive director of SMIC. With the joining of Dai Niu Liang Meng Song, or will further accelerate the 14nm process of SMIC.

On January 30 this year, SMIC announced that it will jointly invest in US$10.24 billion to attack the 14nm technology development jointly with the Big Fund and the Shanghai IC Fund.

It can be said that SMIC is undoubtedly the country's top chair in terms of technology and scale. The company is also considered by the market to be able to compete with international technology in wafer technology.

Although from a technical point of view, TSMC and Samsung have mastered the 10nm high-end process mass production technology, and Gemini and UMC have mastered the high-end 14nm mass production technology, while SMIC, 28nm already mass production, the current yield rate has also been Come up.

According to SMIC's financial report, SMICâ€™s revenue grew by 6.4% for the full year of 2017, which is comparable to the foundry industry's growth rate. It successfully expanded its 28nm process capacity and product mix, and contributed revenue for the fourth quarter. The proportion exceeds 10%.

With the joining of the technology Danieng Liang Mengsong and the support of the National Fund for funding, it is believed that the 14nm process of SMIC will also be a breakthrough soon, further reducing the gap with manufacturers such as TSMC.

Also worth mentioning is that in the field of memory and storage, Chinese manufacturers are also making rapid progress.

For example, Hefei Changxin is building a 12-inch memory wafer R&D project with advanced process technology in the industry. The plant has been basically completed, and equipment installation and commissioning have been completed in the first half of 2018. It is expected that product research and development will be successful in the second half of the year. The total investment is approximately US$7.2 billion, and the monthly production capacity can reach 125,000 wafers, equivalent to the monthly capacity of SKHynix's DRAM fab in Wuxi, China.

In the end of October last year, Zhaoyi Innovation announced that it had reached a cooperation agreement with Hefei Industrial Investment Holding Group with a project budget of approximately RMB 18 billion. It will carry out the research and development of a 12-inch wafer memory (including DRAM, etc.) with a process process of 19nm memory. The target is 2018. The R&D success before December 31st of this year means that the product yield (the ratio of chips with good testability to the entire wafer) should not be lower than 10%.

On March 28, 2016, the â€œnational memory baseâ€ with a total investment of US$24 billion was officially launched in Wuhan. On July 26, the Yangtze River Storage, the core carrier of the â€œNational Memory Baseâ€ project, was formally established. At the same time, Wuhan Xinxin became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yangtze River Storage.

In June of this year, the maternity room stored by the Yangtze River was capped in advance. In mid-November, Yangtze River Storage has successfully developed 32-layer 3D NAND Flash chips. Yangtze River Storage originally planned to provide 32-layer 3D NAND samples at the end of December. However, this chip sample came out early, and the first version passed the terminal's actual measurement, symbolizing a major breakthrough in R&D.

According to the plan for storage of the Yangtze River, 3D flash memory production is expected to begin in the second half of 2018. The initial production capacity is 5,000 wafers/month. However, once the yield problem is solved, large-scale mass production will follow and the design capacity of the Wuhan base can eventually be achieved. 300,000 wafers/month will be enough to match the production capacity of companies such as SKHynix and Toshiba.

According to industry sources, the Changjiang River has already reserved 5,000 pieces of machine capacity equipment and is expected to enter the market in the second quarter of 2018.

It is worth noting that the key focus of the Yangtze River Storage is 64-layer 3D NAND chips. If all goes well, Changjiang Storage will begin mass production of 64-layer 3D NAND flash memory in 2019. By then, the gap between them and Samsung and other large companies can be shortened to less than two years.

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