The development of the semiconductor industry after a strong earthquake

How to treat the global semiconductor industry after the Japan earthquake has become the focus. At present, there is a perception in the industry that earthquakes affect at most one quarter and have little impact on the semiconductor industry. For example, iSuppli, a market analysis company, reported on April 5th that it had forecasted global semiconductor sales to be US$320.1 billion to US$325.2 billion, which means sales will increase by US$5 billion. The reason is also due to the impact of the 311 Great Japan Earthquake, resulting in mismatches in the supply chain up and down supply, which may increase ASP ASP ASP.

This time, TSMC’s Zhang Zhongmou seems particularly sensitive. On April 6th, the Japanese 311 strong earthquake has indeed hit the global semiconductor industry and will begin to appear in the second quarter of 2011. Therefore, he has deducted memory in 2011. The output value of the global semiconductor industry was revised downward from the previously estimated annual growth rate of 7% to 4%. As many people know, the status of DRAM this year has been different from last year. According to iSuppli’s latest estimate, 2011 DRAM dropped by 11.8% to USD 35.5 billion. Therefore, this means that this year's global semiconductors, including DRAM, may not even be guaranteed by the opinion of Zhang Zhongmou.

From the above, it is shown that for the same major Japanese earthquake, the industry has two completely opposite views, reflecting that the true face of the incident may not have been opened yet.

The downside of the semiconductor industry is that the world’s two largest economies, the United States and Japan, have suffered heavy losses. The United States is affected by the financial crisis and has not been able to achieve its intended goal. The impact of the earthquake in Japan was estimated to cost US$20 billion. Coupled with the current shortage of electricity, many regions have adopted power-restricting measures and the damage to the industry cannot be ignored.

Almost 70% of the electronic materials in the global electronic industry industrial chain are produced in Japan. Therefore, the impact on the semiconductor industry cannot be underestimated. It is not yet predictable, and its degree of influence is large, small or medium.

However, the direct losses caused by earthquakes and tsunami can be estimated and compensated, but the damage caused by nuclear radiation cannot be estimated. Therefore, it is difficult to correctly predict the overall loss of the Japanese economy.

From the above perspective, the semiconductor industry is definitely down. Compared to last year's record high growth, the industry will have a huge contrast.

The ominous signs presently look at the global semiconductor industry's situation is good and ominous. There are some ominous signs such as the latest semiconductor research and analysis report released by VLSI, reflecting the weakness of the global semiconductor industry.

桉 Its report ended on the 8th of April, with global semiconductor sales of US$5.01 trillion, down 7% from the previous week, but up 13% compared to the same period last year. The ASP of the chip was US$1,31, a decrease of 5% from the previous week, but it was flat compared with the same period of last year. IC shipments were 3.82 billion, which was a decrease of 2% compared with the previous week, but it was up 13% compared with the same period of last year.

There is also an ominous sign that global PC shipments in the Q1 of 2011 were 84.3 million units, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the same period of last year, and Gartner forecasted that it would increase by 3%. No one can predict such a big difference. In addition, despite Samsung’s denial, analysts at Citigroup still concluded that Samsung will postpone investment and pointed out that Lam Research’s revenue for the second quarter will be reduced. A report released recently by Barclays Capital also pointed out that Samsung will reduce its spending on the 16th and 14th production lines, and may postpone the investment of 1 billion US dollars, leaving the industry concerned.

Conclusion In 2010, there was a rare 32% high growth in global semiconductors, reaching US$300 billion. So this year's situation is particularly attracting attention. It is impossible to maintain high growth as a whole, but the growth is very likely to be between 5% and 10%. However, after 311 Japan suffered a major earthquake, as Japan is the world’s second-largest economic power, and almost 70% of the material from the electronic industry chain is produced in Japan, it added new variables to the future development of the industry. It is definitely negative. However, it is not yet possible to predict whether the impact is large, small or medium, and it needs further observation.

China's semiconductor industry is not yet able to enter its own virtuous cycle, so it is closely related to the general trend of the global semiconductor industry. This is the main reason for this article's attention to the trend.