4K TV is about to spread

In the past two years, with the development of the Internet, broadband, and big data, the digital economy has gradually opened its mouth. 4K UHD TV is the focus of the digital economy in the home, and its importance is being re-recognized. 4K TV has also truly entered the gold of development. era. The data shows that the market penetration rate of China's 4K TV reached 58% in 2017. It is generally believed that when the penetration rate of 4K TV is above 60%, it will reach the level of popularity.

According to the China Electronics Video Industry Association, the market penetration rate of China's 4K TVs has increased from 2% in 2013 to 58% in 2017. This five-year period is the fastest growth rate for 4K TVs. After 2017, the growth rate of 4K TV penetration rates will gradually slow down to 71% by 2020. The industry generally believes that when the penetration rate of 4K TV is more than 60%, it will reach the level of popularity.

The global 4K TV is not developing as fast as the Chinese market. According to data from Qunzhi Consulting, the global UD TV (Ultra High Definition TV) global shipment ratio was 12.9% in 2015 and 35.3% in 2017. Forecast data shows that the global penetration rate of 4K TVs will rise to over 40% in 2018.

Aowei Cloud analyst Cui Jilong believes that the reason why the Chinese market is developing faster than the global market is that Chinese consumers are more willing to try new technology products. 4K TVs have a clearer display effect than 2K TVs. For consumers who are currently pursuing picture quality effects, they are more willing to buy 4K TVs.

Peng Xiandong, general manager of Zhongyi Kang Black Electric, said that the boom of LCD TVs replacing CRT TVs around 2010 has passed for seven or eight years. Now when another wave of replacements is coming, consumers recognize that TV display technology is going higher. The trend of resolution development, so when buying a new machine, naturally choose a new type of TV with higher resolution, such as 4K TV. Although the richness of the supply of 4K TV programs and movies and TV shows in the past 5 years is far less than expected, 4K TV has also been criticized by many people as having no 4K source to watch, but from a technical perspective, even SD, HD The effect of watching a program or film source on 4K TV is also clearer than that of 2K TV.

In fact, the upstream panel industry is more powerful in driving TV to the 4K era. The panel occupies 60% to 70% of the total TV cost. In the past few years, the production capacity of the 8.5-generation LCD panel production line has expanded rapidly, the shipment of large-size 4K panels has risen rapidly, and the cost price has continued to decline. The price of 4K TVs has dropped to a level acceptable to consumers, which has further driven 4K TV sales in the terminal market. According to data provided by Qunzhi Consulting, the price of 55-inch 4K panels in the first quarter of 2015 was US $ 286. By the fourth quarter of 2017, the price had dropped by more than US $ 100 to US $ 174.

On the side of machine manufacturers, although the TV industry is driven by display technology, TV manufacturers are also very happy to see 4K TV sales increase. 4K TVs are usually equipped with large screens larger than 50 inches. The larger the screen, the higher the TV selling price and the higher the profits the manufacturers get. Compared with white goods, the profit margin of color TV manufacturers has been declining year by year. In the first half of 2017, due to the sharp increase in the prices of raw materials and key components, the net profit margin of China's television industry was less than 1%, and many companies were in a state of negative growth. 4K large-screen TVs are one of the directions for TV manufacturers to transform and upgrade to mid- to high-ends. The return to the large-screen ultra-high-definition market is becoming the main theme. The penetration rate of 4K TVs of major brands is rising. According to data from Aowei Cloud, Skyworth 4K TV penetration rate reached 56%, and Changhong and Konka 4K TV penetration rates also exceeded 50%.

It should be noted that although the penetration rate of 4K TVs is close to 60%, which is at the level of popularity, the penetration rates of 4K TVs of different sizes are quite different. There are relatively few small and medium-sized 4K TVs with a penetration rate of less than 30%. 49-55-inch 4K TV penetration rate is generally more than 60%. The penetration rate of 4K TVs over 55 inches is over 80%. The larger the size, the higher the permeability; the smaller the size, the weaker the presence of 4K.

Li Yaqin, general manager of Qunzhi Consulting, told reporters that there is basically no 4K for TVs under 40 inches, and the penetration rate for 4K TVs over 49 inches has reached more than 80%, which is basically saturated in this market. In the future, 4K TVs will further penetrate into the small and medium size, and the space for penetration into the large size of 55 inches or more is limited, and further development will face greater pressure. Moreover, Peng Xiandong pointed out that on small and medium-sized TVs of 40 inches or less, considering the factor of the best viewing distance of the human eye, the rendering effect of 2K and 4K TVs is not much different for consumers, so those below 40 inches It is actually not necessary to do 4K resolution on TV.

The demand for advanced 4K TVs to 8K TVs has increased in recent months. According to forecast data, by 2020, the market penetration rate of 8K TVs over 65 inches will reach about 10%. At present, only the Sharp family on the market has launched a 70-inch 8K consumer TV. In general, 8K TV is one of the future development directions of TV, but in the next 3 to 5 years, 4K TV is still the mainstream.

On a 55-inch TV, similar to the situation encountered by a TV under 40 inches, 8K display effect and 4K display effect are not much different for consumers, and to achieve 8K display effect, panel technology, manufacturing process, display technology determines It is only economical to produce on products over 65 inches. So, 65 inches is the starting size of 8K TV. In the next 5 years, the market share of 65-inch TVs is only 10% to 15%, and cannot become the mainstream of the market. Han Xuewen, senior product manager of Hisense, told reporters that the development of 8K TV will not be as rapid as that of 4K TV replacing 2K TV. In a long time, 4K TV will be the mainstream.

For a long time, the evolution of the television industry has been driven by display technology, and hardware is a part of the main value of color TV products. As mentioned above, screens account for 60-70% of the cost of TVs. The quality of screens determines most of the quality of TV products. The technological evolution and evolution of screens have brought development dividends to the TV industry, but the impact of over-reliance on screens has become increasingly prominent in the current color TV industry.

The consulting agency estimated that in 2017, the annual profit of the six largest LCD panel manufacturers in the world will reach 14 billion to 15 billion US dollars, close to 100 billion yuan. During the same period, the profit of the entire color TV industry was less than 2 billion yuan. In the past five years, the profit margins of China's six largest color TV companies have continued to decline from 3% and have been at a low level. Recovering profits is an important issue for color TV companies.

In the past, color TV companies held the thinking of "hardware is king", relying solely on the quality and differentiation of TV products to obtain profits. The entry of Internet companies into the TV industry has brought new ideas of "content is king" to TV manufacturers and provided consumers with a general education. Whether it is hardware or content, TV manufacturers are increasingly aware of the ultimate orientation of "experience is king", and this also brings them a new profit direction. 4K TV is a very good opportunity.

4K TV is also a smart TV. Smart TV is considered to be an extremely important export for the transformation and upgrading of the color TV industry and for reshaping the ecological chain. In the era of intelligence, TV manufacturers rely on intelligent operating systems and intelligent applications to create new profit models. Ma Songlin, deputy dean of TCL Industrial Research Institute, once revealed that most of the energy of color TV manufacturers has turned to do a lot of Internet applications instead of hardware. Li Yaqin told reporters that today, TV manufacturers have expanded their vision to interconnect with the Internet of Things terminals, and smart operation and interconnection with other smart devices have become particularly important.

Content is not what TV manufacturers are good at. However, 4K content is an indispensable part of providing users with a complete 4K experience. One of the "non-hardware profit model" directions TV manufacturers are looking for is the user operation and content profit model.

For example, TCL and Tencent cooperate to provide Internet movie and television content, and Haier TV and Ali cooperate to provide 4K content. ZCL Jiawei, senior manager of the TCL operations management department, told reporters that for every 4K TV sold, as long as users consume the content on the TV, brand TV manufacturers will have a share in the content. The popularity of 4K TVs can accelerate the advancement of content-generating models, and 4K-based home entertainment can also stimulate more content-related cross-border and innovation. Moreover, the larger the screen, the higher the HD TV, the more the benefits of data consumption can be reflected. Because when every household uses 4K smart TV, the data circulation range will become larger and larger, and the new format and intelligent innovation based on data will bring a better future.

Last year, Guangdong Province introduced preferential policies to encourage the development of the 4K industry chain, accelerating the popularization of the 4K industry. According to internal sources, the Guangdong government will provide corresponding subsidies for the sale of 4K TVs by color TV manufacturers and distributors in Guangdong Province. Although the amount is not large, its guiding effect is obvious. Wu Wei, chief engineer of Skyworth Group Co., Ltd., believes that color TV enterprises are in transition, and that Guangdong Province ’s support for the 4K industry chain is timely and will provide a continuous source of power for the company ’s future development.

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