Broadband technology shifts to FTTH WiMAX and Cable

According to the latest statistics, as of the end of 2005, there were 200 million broadband access users worldwide, of which 140 million were DSL users. As of December 31, 2005, the number of Internet users in China reached 111 million, of which the number of Internet users with broadband access (DSL, Cable Modem, etc.) was 64.3 million. DSL is in the leading position in the domestic broadband access market, but compared with the decrease in the growth rate of access users at the end of 2004, it also reminds us of the transformation of the broadband market. Hot-spot applications such as IPTV, VoIP voice services, and online games have also put forward new requirements for the value attributes of access technologies such as bandwidth, QoS, and stability. This has caused everyone to look forward to FTTH, while looking forward to DSL. WiMAX and other new bandwidth technologies.

Foreign broadband technology turns to FTTH

Fiber-to-the-home FTTH is an ideal mode for broadband access. In recent years, the development momentum of countries in the world has been rapid. No matter in North America, Asia or Europe, the number of users is growing rapidly. There are currently 270 FTTP / FTTH projects in the United States, the most radical of which is Verizon. In 2004, its FTTH users were 1 million, but in 2005 it surged to 3 million, and the user bandwidth reached 30M per user. SBC adopted the FTTN + VDSL2 strategy and implemented its $ 4 billion "speed of light" plan. In 2007, the user scale is expected to reach 19 million households, with an access speed of 20M / household-39M / household. Prepare to provide end-to-end triple-play services.

Japan is the fastest growing country in FTTH in the world. By the end of 2004, FTTH in Japan has reached 18 million households and 2 million users have been developed. Japan plans to add 2 million households in 2005. There are four reasons for its rapid development: first, the government promotes the development of Japan â€™s FTTH from the height of the national information strategy, and vigorously promotes the development of broadband through a series of national projects; second, the government at the policy level uses financial subsidies, tax reductions and other This kind of means guides and encourages operators to build FTTH. Third, the development of technology guarantees the deployment of FTTH networks. Finally, competition between different operators intensifies the construction of FTTH.

South Korea is even more blunt, changing its FTTx + VDSL access plan originally planned for 2005 to FTTH directly, which forms the only country in the world where DSL subscribers have declined.

WiMAX and Cable do not pose a threat for the time being

Although WiMAX technology has many advantages, but when it is not fully mature, there are still some uncertainties in the development prospects. For example, it uses channel sharing, the average bandwidth of each user is limited, the wireless transmission is greatly affected by the environment, the indoor coverage problem is not easy to solve, and the cost is high. Moreover, it is very difficult for WiMAX to adapt to the spectrum division of various countries. Therefore, WiMAX does not currently constitute a strong competition for wired access, but as a supplement to market segments.

Cable Modem is widely used in the United States and Europe. The reason is that it has the advantage of transmission rate, and it is more suitable for the characteristics of the residential layout of the US and European countries. Taking the United States as an example, the residential distance of residents is far away, and the users are relatively sparse. In this environment of low user density, the transmission rate of Cable Modem is higher than that of xDSL and Ethernet. For the pursuit of high speed, clarity, For Americans who enjoy smooth video, Cable Modem has become the first choice for users. Moreover, most broadband users in the United States use video services, and accidental packet loss has little effect on service quality, and security is not a problem. However, Cable Modem is a bus-type access method. The problem of mutual interference between users is more prominent, and the impact of line failure on users is larger. Users on the same cable must share bandwidth with each other. In dense residential areas, due to too many users, it is generally difficult to achieve a more ideal rate. Furthermore, due to the separation of China's telecommunications and radio and television departments, it is also one of the reasons for the slow promotion of cable access in China. Perhaps the "three network integration" proposed in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" will bring a new way out for Cable access.

How far is FTTH from us?

As the most promising future broadband successor, it will take time for FTTH to achieve its leading position in China. From the perspective of its cost, according to the statistics of 100,000 lines, if only data services are provided, the cost of FTTH currently reaches 2,000 yuan / line, which is expected to drop to 1,200 yuan / line in 3 years. Compared with ADSL's 600 yuan / line, its price has yet to be broken through.

Under the impetus of the national "863" high-tech plan, China carried out research on EPON technology during the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period. In 2003, the promotion of FTTH began. In 2004, with the completion of the "863" EPON project, the state established fiber-to-the-home test networks in Wuhan, Chengdu and other places. At the same time, major operators and developers have a positive attitude towards FTTH, and many cities have also given corresponding policy support. At present, more than 20 cities have built fiber-to-the-home test networks.

On the basis of the opening of a trial commercial network and a comprehensive test of FTTH equipment in Wuhan in March 2005, China Telecom carried out pilot work in Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. At the same time as China Netcom's location test in business centers and high-end residential areas in Beijing and other places, it is also conducting a comprehensive test of FTTH equipment. In addition, China Communications Standards Association has also begun the formulation of FTTH standards. Resident network operators, such as Tailong, have also made efforts to expand and explore new service provision and operation models based on the established trial network. Real estate developers also use FTTH as a hot selling point for high-end real estate, in order to increase the added value of sales and speed up sales. All of this has beneficially promoted the promotion of China's FTTH access technology.

However, in China, although the country has repeatedly emphasized the importance of strengthening informatization construction, there is no clear policy for FTTH so far, nor any measures to encourage and support FTTH. Although many local governments have clearly expressed their support, they are obviously not strong enough. The price of installation is too high, people do not understand FTTH, and a series of problems caused by the difficulty of coordination between service providers, content providers and telecommunications operators, which have also become a stumbling block for technology promotion. Therefore, only under the coordination of various factors can we thoroughly promote the development of FTTH in China. FTTH has a long way to go in China.

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