Grid investment to optimize the deployment capacity of distribution network and agricultural network

Recently, the China Electricity Council announced the "2017-2018 National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). The report shows that in 2017, the national electricity supply and demand continued to be generally loose, and the regional supply and demand situation was quite different. In 2017, the national total electricity consumption was 6.3 trillion kWh, and the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 6.6% year-on-year.

Looking forward to 2018, power consumption will continue to maintain a steady and rapid growth in 2017. It is expected that the total electricity consumption in the whole society will increase by about 5.5% in 2018. It is estimated that the newly installed capacity of the whole country will be around 120 million kilowatts. It is estimated that by the end of 2018, the national installed capacity of power generation will reach 1.90 billion kilowatts, and the installed capacity of coal power will be 1.02 billion kilowatts, accounting for 53.6% of the national installed capacity, 1.5 percentage points lower than the end of 2017. In 2018, the country's electricity supply and demand was generally loose, and some areas were surplus. The power supply and demand during the peak hours of electricity consumption in some areas was tight. An Hongguang, deputy secretary-general of the China Electricity Council and director of the Ministry of Industry Development and Environmental Resources, gave a detailed explanation of the report and made recommendations on the supply and demand of electricity in 2018.

In 2017, the nation's power supply and demand continued to be generally loose, and the regional supply and demand situation was quite different. Among them, the balance of power supply and demand in North China is tight, the supply and demand of power in Central China is basically balanced, and the balance of power supply and demand in East China and South China is more than enough. The power supply capacity in Northeast China and Northwest China is more abundant.

First, the cleanup trend of power generation and installation structure is obvious. By the end of 2017, the national installed capacity of full-caliber power generation was 1.78 billion kilowatts, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year; among them, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation was 690 million kilowatts, accounting for 38.7% of the total installed capacity of power generation. The year-on-year increase was 2.1 percentage points. The newly added power generation capacity of the country was 133.72 million kilowatts, of which, the newly added non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity was 89.88 million kilowatts, both hitting record highs. The newly added hydropower installed capacity was 12.87 million kilowatts, of which 2 million kilowatts of pumped storage capacity; the newly installed grid-connected wind power installed capacity was 19.52 million kilowatts, of which the eastern and central regions accounted for 58.9%, an increase of 8.8 percentage points year-on-year; Increased grid-connected solar power installed capacity of 53.38 million kilowatts, an increase of 21.67 million kilowatts, 82.4% of new installed capacity concentrated in the eastern and central regions, an increase of 19.6 percentage points. The newly installed thermal power installed capacity was 45.78 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7 million kilowatts.

Second, the non-fossil energy power generation has grown rapidly, and the proportion of coal-fired power generation has decreased. The national full-caliber power generation capacity was 6.42 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. Among them, non-fossil energy power generation increased by 10.0% year-on-year, accounting for 30.4% of total power generation, up 1.0 over the same period last year. Percentage points. Full-caliber grid-connected solar power, grid-connected wind power and nuclear power generation increased by 75.4%, 26.3% and 16.5% respectively; full-scale hydropower generation increased by 1.7%, and the growth rate dropped by 3.9 year-on-year. percentage point. Full-caliber thermal power generation increased by 5.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 2.9 percentage points year-on-year; among them, coal-fired power generation increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year. The proportion of total power generation was 64.5%, down 1.0 percentage point year-on-year.

Third, the utilization hours of hydropower equipment decreased year-on-year, and the problem of abandoned wind and light was significantly improved. The national power generation equipment utilization hours were 3,786 hours, which was roughly the same as the previous year. Among them, affected by factors such as the high base of the previous year, the utilization of hydropower equipment was 3,579 hours, a decrease of 40 hours. Affected by multiple factors such as rapid growth in power consumption and low-speed growth in hydropower generation, the utilization of thermal power equipment in the country was 4,209 hours, up 23 hours year-on-year, of which coal-fired equipment utilization hours were 4,278 hours, a slight increase year-on-year. Nuclear power equipment utilization hours were 7108 hours, an increase of 48 hours year-on-year. With the joint efforts of the government and power companies, the problem of abandoning wind and abandoning light has improved significantly. The utilization hours of wind power and solar power generation equipment in the country have been 1,948 hours and 1,204 hours respectively, up 203 hours and 74 hours respectively, including the northwest region. The utilization hours of wind power and solar power generation equipment increased by 380 hours and 146 hours respectively.

Fourth, the supply and demand situation of thermal coal is tight, and the supply of natural gas for winter power generation is tight. In 2017, the demand for coal consumption increased more than expected. The coal industry went over-capacity, superimposed safety, environmental protection and other factors. The increase in coal production was insufficient, and the supply of coal market was less than consumption, resulting in a tight supply of coal. The relevant departments have taken measures to increase the supply of coal, and the supply and demand situation has eased. However, the demand for coal consumption in the peak winter is growing rapidly. The supply and demand situation of coal in Guizhou, Hunan and Gansu is relatively tight. Affected by factors such as the concentrated release of new demand for “coal to gas”, natural gas consumption demand exceeded expectations, and natural gas supply for power generation during the heating period was tight. In some areas, gas turbine power generation was limited by gas supply.

Fifth, the efficiency of the power industry has declined, and the business situation of coal-fired power companies has continued to be severe. The price of thermal coal continued to be high, and most of the year was in the “red zone” operation, which led to a significant increase in the cost of power generation for coal-fired power companies and a large loss. It is estimated that the procurement cost of coal in the national coal-fired power enterprises in 2017 will increase by 200 billion yuan compared with 2016 due to the increase in the price of coal. The scale of market-based trading power has further expanded, with a total of 1.63 trillion kWh of electricity sold, up 45% year-on-year, effectively reducing social production costs. In addition, the subsidies for renewable energy subsidies are obviously lagging behind, and the environmental protection investment of coal-fired power companies is increasing, and environmental subsidies are difficult to make up for environmental protection investment, which has aggravated the production and operation dilemma of power companies. Due to the continuous loss of coal-fired power companies and the reduction of new coal-fired power projects, the business situation of power generation design, construction and construction is also severe.

First, the grid investment continued to tilt toward the distribution network and the rural network, and a new round of rural network transformation and upgrading achieved significant progress. The national power grid project completed an investment of 531.5 billion yuan, of which 110kV and below accounted for 53.2% of the total investment in the power grid; the new round of rural power network transformation achieved significant progress, completing the "13" In the “Opinions on Implementing a New Round of Rural Power Grid Reconstruction and Upgrade Project during the Five-Year Plan” (State Council issued [2016] No. 9), the task of “renovating and upgrading the central village power grid and realizing full coverage of the wells in the plain area”.

Second, a number of UHV AC-DC projects were put into operation, and the ability to optimize resource allocation was improved. In 2017, a total of “two crosses and six straight” UHV transmission projects were completed. Among them, the UHV AC-DC project of the National Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan was fully completed. The nationwide completion of cross-regional power transmission was 423.5 billion kWh, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year, and the inter-provincial power transmission was 1.13 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%.

Third, the operation of power grid enterprises faces major challenges. On the one hand, revenue growth of power grid companies will slow down. In 2017, the country has completed 32 provincial-level power grid transmission and distribution price reforms. The average transmission and distribution price has decreased by nearly 1 cent per kWh compared with the current purchase and sale price difference, and the 32 provincial-level power grids have been approved to reduce revenue by about 48 billion yuan. On the other hand, power grid enterprises fulfill their universal power services, implement strategic plans such as poverty alleviation, rural revitalization, aid to Tibet, and regional coordination, and continuously increase investment in rural construction, focusing on deep poverty areas such as “three districts and three states”. In the border areas, ethnic areas and old industrial bases in the Northeast, some provincial power grid enterprises suffered losses.

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