Jeff Burnstein: Robotic heat goes one after another last time in 1990
[Netease smart news August 24 news] 2017WRC World Robot Conference held in Beijing, during the conference, the President of the American Robotics Association Jeff Burnstein conducted a speech on the theme of "the key trends in the development of the North American robot market."
Jeff Burnstein said that when I was working in the robotics industry, it was 1983. At that time, everyone said that the industrial robot industry was the next industrial revolution. By 1990, sales would reach billions of dollars, and service robots would be integrated. In our lives, many financial companies have invested a lot of money in this industry, and we expect rapid growth. People at the time said that they would lose their jobs and they would worry about artificial intelligence. Machines would become smarter than people. However, by 2017, everyone stood on the same starting point again, just like in the 1980s. At the time, GM cancelled orders for many robots. General Motors was actually the largest demand for robots, because many robots were not easy to use. Industrial robots fought each other and the robotics industry was almost dead.
According to statistics, sales of robots continue to hit new highs, with double-digit growth each year, especially since the 2010 financial crisis.
Jeff Burnstein believes that 2017 is the best year in history for industrial robots to be sold in North America. It is probable that 40,000 robots will be sold. The total sales volume will reach the level of one billion US dollars, and about 70% of the orders are In the field of automated production.
The following is a live speech recording:
Thanks to the organizer for giving me this opportunity to come here and discuss the major trends in the North American robot market. When I started working in the robotics industry in 1983, at that time everyone said that the industrial robot industry was the next industrial revolution. By 1990, sales would reach billions of dollars, and service robots would integrate into us. In life, many financial companies have invested a lot of money in this industry and are expected to grow at a rapid rate. People at the time said that they would lose their jobs and they would worry about artificial intelligence. Machines would become smarter than people. But by 2017, everyone stood at the same starting point again, just like in the 1980s. At that time, the United States GM had cancelled many orders for robots. General Motors was actually the largest robot demanding party because many robots were not easy to use. Industrial robots fought each other and the robotics industry was almost dead.
Let's take a look at the status of the robot market in North America. The sales volume of robots continues to hit new highs, with double-digit growth every year, especially since the 2010 financial crisis. 2017 is the best year for industrial robots in our history to be sold in North America. It is likely that there will be sales of 40,000 robots, and the total sales volume will reach the level of 1 billion US dollars. This is the user of our robot. About 70% of the orders are in the field of automated production. This was the case in North America long ago. What we are seeing now is in other fields such as metals, plastics, rubbers, etc., but now the main driver is still automated production.
The auto industry in the first half of 2017 grew by 55%, and it is rapidly advancing in almost every field and every market. Many years ago we talked about the need to make robots realize its potential and must develop in the non-automotive industry. Now we finally see a significant year-on-year growth. In the past few years, the non-automotive industry has grown by more than 9%. I think its speed is still accelerating. Material handling is still the biggest use, of course, the welding industry is also increasing, but also saw some progress in other areas, I will talk more about the assembly area later, this area has also grown. These are growths in different application areas, with the highest growth in material removal. Its growth has reached 127% and mutual welding has increased by 107%. The growth in each area is actually very fast, except for inspections, but inspections Is a very small area, so several large orders can change the growth of the entire field, but it is still a negative growth.
Therefore, collaborative robots are a topic of much discussion, not only in North America but throughout the world. Some of our collaborative application solutions are human and robot collaborations, but in reality there is no such thing as collaborative robots. We use this word because we let our customers better understand what robots we are talking about because we need some definition when it comes to collaborative robots, such as robots that interact directly with humans in a designated collaboration area. When performing tasks, robots can work simultaneously with humans, and specially designed robots can directly cooperate with humans in designated areas. This is called collaborative operation.
Why are we so interested in collaborative robots? Here we have seen some promises made by new technologies. They are simple to install and easy to operate. They are the biggest questions for industrial robots. The challenge for SMEs in particular is that they are particularly complicated, costly, require too much capital investment, and require too much Engineers, so many companies, especially small ones, are reluctant to use industrial robots, but they are very interested in collaborative robots and are less expensive because they are not fenced, need no protection and do not need to invest in more sites. Because people and machines can work together in close proximity, but also do not need some engineering costs. We can see a variety of educational or training projects or videos about collaborative robots because it is very convenient. At the same time, flexibility is also very high. It is not a big machine. It can be adapted and reconstructed. It can also be walked around the entire factory. It can even be portable, so it can bring a lot of benefits.
If all these benefits can be achieved, of course, it is the best. However, we also know that there are some challenges. When we see these market researches, we know that there are indeed some challenges. The first is the issue of security. At present, people say that a cooperative robot is safe, but it is not 100% safe. It depends on what it grabs. If a sharp knife is in your hand, it can be dangerous. What if you find someone's eyes beside a person? So we must do a risk assessment, just like an industrial robot. People are worried that their work will be replaced by robots. We have already talked about how robots can replace people's work. Now if we introduce collaborative robots in small companies, does that mean that some jobs will be replaced? So we must change our concepts and attitudes so we can really use collaborative robots. There are also some promises and expectations that are unrealistic, because we must ensure that everyone understands the safety and cooperation rules, and it must be safe to install collaborative robots.
When we talk with system integrators and users, they will say that they cannot find a suitable application solution. They are too slow. Many robots have limited payloads. The traditional industrial robots may be more customers. A good solution, so speed and load constraints will also restrict the development of collaborative robots in the short term.
When we talked about artificial intelligence in the 1980s, we can see that it is not entirely related to robots. However, we have heard that IBM's Watson is now able to reach the intelligence of human children. How does artificial intelligence and robotics work? Combining, how to make life better. Watson's best application is to assist physicians because there are many medical studies and doctors do not have time to read, so they do not know to what extent the current research is progressing. IBM's Watson can help doctors read the study and help them find related documents, so it is indeed a collaboration with the doctor's group. I think this is a good example of how artificial intelligence and machine learning should not be seen as a threat to humans. Machine learning has indeed been used a lot and is also very important in the robotics industry. Now that the robot has been programmed to a certain degree, you can tell it what you want to do. It can find the best way to teach yourself to do this, that is to say I teach a robot and then send this information through the cloud. To all other robots, a robot is taught and all other thousands of robots can learn. This is a very exciting prospect for robot development.
Since the early 1980s, we have been talking about how important machine vision is. However, the reality is that most robots have no visual ability. If the robot has vision, of course it is better, whether it is in the 2D or 3D state. . More and more robots need to be visually involved in their missions. This can prevent accidental collisions of tools. They can also distinguish parts of different colors and reduce the demand for precision furniture. We will see the development in machine vision. Rapidly advance.
There are also a lot of hot vocabularies appearing in North America and around the world, including Industry 4.0, Smart Production, Internet of Things, etc. But now many machines have been connected to the Internet, and the most important thing is for companies to understand this, because everywhere Sensors and the Internet of Things and Industry 4.0, but many companies do not understand or do, so they simply ignore these new trends or new words, I think we should teach them how to do. We talked to Fanock and they have a ZDT function technology, which is zero shutdown. The ZDT is a 24-hour monitoring of the robot, which is of course used in the production of GM. The downtime event causes problems every year, but ZDT's technology can prevent 50 unplanned downtime events, once the downtime may lead to the entire The downtime of the production line is a great challenge and impact for GM. Now that there is technology with zero shutdown capability, downtime can be avoided. There are already 8,000 factories using ZDT technology, and the entire GM has used 30,000 robots in factories around the world.
Mobile robots are also a global trend. I have been involved in the mobile robot industry for a long time. Currently, mobile robots can act autonomously. Companies such as Amazon and Wal-Mart have their distribution centers using mobile robots. Reducing errors, accelerating the flow of materials, saving space for storage, and improving the design of the entire route, because in the past, if they were people, the design of the space route they walked in and out was not optimized. Now that they have a mobile robot, they can do it. improved. The military field has also been applied to prevent soldiers from being harmed, and is now increasingly working with industrial robotic arms. Many companies are entering the field of mobile robots. If you go to a warehouse or logistics center, you can see more and more mobile robots use. People are walking beside these robots. Their security system is very good and they have vision. They are connected to the cloud. Therefore, mobile robots are an important trend that we need to pay special attention to.
With regard to the support of governments of various countries around the world, China has made 2025 in China. Yes, we launched the “National Robotics Strategic Plan†in the United States in 2011 to support the development of the robot industry. We provide strong support to the robot manufacturing industry. For example, we have an advanced robot manufacturing innovation center, which is part of the US manufacturing plan. We hope it can help these U.S. manufacturing industries and encourage companies to invest in developing new technologies in the United States. It is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and covers local governments, industries, universities, community schools, and non-profit organizations throughout the state. So far, the public’s donations have reached US$173 million. Together with the US$80 million funded by the Federal Government, the manufacturing innovation center of this advanced robot is currently running very well. It can help us accelerate the development of the robot industry, and at the same time, it will also allow More companies join the industry.
Robotics and work are issues we face every day. People are also studying this topic. Recently, there have been some researches on 6 that robots will replace artificial ones. Others say that robots are increasing productivity and have not reduced employment. When people talk about robots, they always talk about its impact on the work. Let's briefly talk about our position here. We feel that the danger of employment for the United States or other countries in the world is that the company loses its competitiveness. At that time, all jobs are risky. Therefore, automation is used to help the company compete, allowing the company to produce higher quality products. Lower costs also give companies the opportunity to get more jobs. Because there are a series of videos on our website, these videos are for some companies talking about why they want to automate. Many people say that since the introduction of robots, they can hire more people than people who reduce their work. For us, this problem will not disappear soon. We will always talk about this topic.
We have been looking at various kinds of research. Some say that as more and more robots are used, more people will lose their jobs. We will see when the 2010 recession hits, and when robot sales reached the highest point in history, robot shipments reached around 130,000 units, but the number of jobs in the manufacturing sector is still rising, adding 900,000 jobs. Opportunity, the unemployment rate in 2010 was about 10%, and it later fell to 5%. It seems that technology has not taken away from people's work. If we look back, from 1996 to 2016, or from 1997 to the past 20 years, the sales of robots are increasing, and the unemployment rate in the United States has been Falling. When the robot sales decline, the unemployment rate in the United States is rising, so it is contrary to what people think, and it is contrary to what many media have said. With the use of robots, some types of jobs will change and new jobs will be created. This is also an opportunity for companies from all over the world to compete because you can't say that you don't need to use the best technology or production methods to do things better, but now we have some technical gaps, including robot vision, etc. .
Now we have to find enough skilled workers to meet these jobs. The United States actually has a lot of demand. Research shows that by 2025, there will be 2 million jobs because of lack of skills. This is an important issue. The problems also hinder the future growth of the manufacturing industry. The United States is also seeking to bridge the gaps in skills. There are many plans for these people. If they want to work in this field, they will also have to undergo training for about four years before, such as in communities, universities, or vocational training institutions. Training, so that it can create value for the corresponding company. Some companies are doing training, but the total number is also very low, and the level of training provided is not so high. Such as Ohio, there are such training, these people need to continue to try to really meet the needs of customers, only then through continuous Training can achieve sufficient and skilled workers.
This is our white paper. Everyone can download it for free. There is also a lot of useful information here, and even videos that have just been released. In 2017, we held a big exhibition in April this year. If you want to understand the progress of the robotics industry, including industrial applications, you should actually attend such an exhibition. In this year's exhibition, we also exhibited Chinese companies such as Xinsong and HRG. We also held a discussion forum between China and the United States. I think it is very important to continue the ongoing dialogue between China and the United States. The World Robot Conference is also a very good opportunity. There will be more activities. There was another exhibition in 2019. If you are interested, you can go to the website and see another show in the various fields of robot control and robot vision in North America. It is Orlando in January next year. We found that communicating with everyone can help us find more partners and we can find more suppliers, so this can also help China and the United States to further enhance the relationship.
Thanks again to the organizer for inviting me to come here and thank you for listening.
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