Midea Group's 2017 Annual Report Comments: Technology Leads Manufacturing Upgrades, Industrial Robots Become Future Aspects

In 2017, the endogenous growth has been stable, and kuka has contributed to additional growth. Midea's revenue in 2017 was 241.9 billion yuan/+51%, and its net profit was 17.2 billion yuan/+17.7%. Among them, Q4's single-quarter revenue was RMB 54.1 billion/+26%, and its net profit was RMB 2.28 billion/+22%. Q4 growth remained stable. The high revenue growth in 2017 was partly due to the acquisition of a 94.55% stake in German robotics company KUKA. From the date of purchase (2017/01/06) to the end of 2017, KUKA recorded a revenue of 26.7 billion yuan, with a net profit of 675 million yuan. Excluding KUKA, the US revenue rose by 35% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to mothers increased by 13% year-on-year. KUKA's revenue in 2017 was +18%, and its net profit was +2.3%.

Endogenous growth is excellent, this year may narrow the trend. Midea's original income is endogenously +35%, including HVAC +39% and consumer electronics +29%, accounting for 50% of the original revenue. Revenue accounted for 56% of domestic sales, domestic sales accounted for 3:7 of online and offline sales, of which domestic sales of online revenue +80%, sales of 40 billion yuan in the first network. According to our recent tracking, this year's air conditioner sales growth rate has slowed down year-on-year, and the growth rate of ice wash has not changed much compared with the same period last year. High-growth small household appliances are an important force point, and the online growth trend narrows. Therefore, it is inferred that the endogenous growth rate may gradually narrow this year, but under the high-growth hedging in other areas such as small household appliances, we expect the U.S. revenue will achieve a rapid growth of 25% this year.

The acquisition of industrial robots is the future point of view, with rapid growth and broad space. U.S. acquired KUKA, the largest industrial robot manufacturer in Germany, consolidated in 2017 for the full year, earning a revenue of +18%, and the endogenous growth has been stable. Management therefore seeks to expand in China. In 2017, the sales volume of Chinese industrial robots was +60%, and the robot density was a quarter of Germany. Labor shortages and rising labor costs contributed to the promising prospects of industrial robots in the Chinese market. Recently, the United States and KUKA established a new production base in Shunde. By 2024, the new robot capacity will be 75,000 units, plus the original capacity of 100,000 units in China. The United States knows the complexity and pain points of China's manufacturing industry, and through the linkage of KUKA's advantages, it has helped the South China manufacturing industry upgrade through the momentum of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao. The project has invested 10 billion yuan to build a manufacturing base, office area, and talent area in phases.

The cost control was good, the increase in raw material prices led to a slight decline in profitability, and inventory growth was worth noting. The gross profit margin was 25%/-2pp., the sales expense rate was 11%/flat, the management expense rate was 6%/flat, and the ROE was 23.4/-1pp. This year, the raw material prices are expected to be sideways and the profitability is expected to stabilize. Turnover, inventory turnover days + 4 days, accounts receivable turnover days - 3 days. Inventory at the end of the period was RMB 29.4 billion/+88%. Inventory increased significantly from 2Q17 to 4Q17 and gradually increased from 9% of total assets to 12%. During the reporting period, inventory growth +36% exceeded production +29% and sales + 29%, this year's cool summer can control air conditioning inventory is the key. At the end of the period, total cash/financial wealth, etc., totaled 95 billion yuan / +56%.

Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice: Midea Group is a world-class technology group that integrates consumer electronics, HVAC, robotics and automation, and logistics. In the short term, this year, with the first and second tier cities maintaining real estate control, according to the US Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration's forecast for the summer of the summer in the northern hemisphere this summer, the sales growth of air conditioners is expected to be less than the same period of last year, but the high growth of the US consumer electronics is expected to make the United States This year's income will achieve a rapid growth of 25%. In the long run, the acquisition of KUKA will bring new sources of profit growth to industrial robots and become the focus of the future. We are optimistic about the development of the United States. It is expected that the 18-20 year EPS will be 3.14 yuan/+19.3%, 3.82 yuan/+21.7%, and 5.15 yuan/+34.7%, respectively.

Risk Warning: Real estate regulates the sales of compressed air conditioners, and the acquisition of KUKA's goodwill has the risk of impairment. Consumer appliances are also affected by real estate regulation.

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