Seeing the obstacles of commercialization of driverlessness from three aspects

What factors will hinder the rapid commercialization of driverless cars? The author believes that there are three main aspects.

Deep learning is not suitable for driverlessness in nature. Because deep learning is like a black box, its many effects are indescribable. Today's smart driving emphasizes perception, emphasizing that "eyes are six ways to listen to all directions," but intelligence is far less cognitive than human. Therefore, technical breakthroughs are needed and data accumulation is required.

The main problem is the cost of driverless auto parts. Now a laser radar is worth 700,000 yuan. If this is definitely not commercialized on a large scale. We hope that some components such as laser radar will become very cheap in the next 3-5 years, when large-scale commercialization of driverless vehicles can be expected - this is a problem with unmanned infrastructure.

At present, Lidar is particularly expensive. One of the reasons is related to its technology. Traditional mechanical processes require electrical reliability, laser calibration, etc., and the cost is high. In addition, the laser radar is the first in the global market. Manufacturers have only a few thousand shipments a year. In the future, both sides will achieve a breakthrough: after 3 to 5 years, unmanned driving should generate no less than one million radar orders; and the process is also evolving from ordinary mechanical laser radar to solid-state laser radar, which can Reduce costs and form large-scale manufacturing. Therefore, the author is very optimistic about this issue in the next few years.

In addition, it depends on whether the mainstream players in the market are "incoming". To put it bluntly, if only Google is "playing" and mainstream car manufacturers have not kept up, then the market will not be able to get up. Of course, almost all major automakers are now keeping up.

The author is quite optimistic about this aspect. In the United States, Obama also personally wrote articles for unmanned driving, and the US Department of Transportation is also promoting unmanned legislation. Interestingly, the US government wants all states to be consistent with it, not to squash; in fact, states are running faster than the US Department of Transportation, and some states have even issued laws and regulations about driverlessness. From this perspective, the United States is pushing very fast.

If we do not pay attention to speeding up the pace of policy advancement, it is very likely that the manufacturing cost of the United States will be lower than that of China in five years. Europe and Japan have also followed suit very quickly, but I believe that China will also catch up quickly.

The current driving force in China mainly comes from several aspects: First, experts, professional committees and standards organizations from the automotive industry engineering are actively promoted by them. In fact, the Chinese version of the driverless road map has been released. It is estimated that by 2020, the sales volume of automobiles will reach 30 million, and the number of vehicles with different degrees of autopilot function may reach 15 million. The guiding role of similar roadmaps for automakers is self-evident.

The second driving force comes from the relevant departments of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which are responsible for software and hardware testing. They are also working hard to promote the evaluation of compliant unmanned technology. The third driving force is the local government – ​​local governments tend to move faster, and they are willing to try unmanned deployments faster within their jurisdiction. At present, more than a dozen cities in China have developed a driverless car plan, which will form a good situation and produce a pull.

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